Nick Dwyer is an MMA fan. As well as watching the fights, he also likes to browse the web and discuss the action with fellow fans around the world on Reddit. Back in March 2016, he posted an idea for something that has now become known as ‘The Dwyer Score’:
“If you give every fighter a score for their win/loss streaks coming in to an event,” he wrote, “and tally up the scores, you can sometimes get an idea of the general momentum of fighters competing at an event.”
It’s a very simple idea and given how beloved statistics are by sports fans all around the world, an interesting one. Take the upcoming UFC 227, one of a dozen or so PPV events that are held throughout the year. Headlining the fight, a rematch between Cody “No Love” Garbrandt and T.J. Dillashaw for the Bantamweight Title, with a co-main event featuring Demetrious Johnson, widely considered to be the best pound-for-pound mixed martial artist in the world. At the time of writing, the results of the fights are not known. All I know is (assuming my maths are right, which is by no means assured) that the event has a Dwyer Score of 20.
Figuring this out is not too difficult. Most fighters and UFC events have a Wikipedia page, and if they cannot be found there, several other sites such as Sherdog.com which have detailed information on all sorts of fighters, both inside and outside the UFC. Look at the fighter’s last few results and you can see what they’ve won or lost. Dillashaw, with three recent victories, is on +3. Garbrandt is on -1, having lost the title to TJ in his previous fight. So for the main event, the score is 2.
Making up most of the numbers for UFC 227 is Demetrious Johnson. He has been the Flyweight Champion since the belt was first introduced in 2012. His unbeaten streak adds a massive +13 to the event’s score. You might be forgiven for thinking that he would be the main event with a record like that, but unfortunately Johnson is as underrated as he is talented, and not just by the UFC. After him, the rest of the card (including preliminary and early preliminary fights) adds a collection of lower scores, ranging from -2 to +3. This is because, as with any UFC event, there has been an amount of shuffling around as fighters have pulled out and been rescheduled. Alexander Gustafsson (+2), for example, was due to be at UFC 227 but both he and his opponent, Volkan Oezdemir (-1) are injured. Four other fights have been cancelled or reshuffled, and there are at least three people making their UFC debut.
With its Dwyer Score of 20, where does UFC 227 stand compared to other events? Thanks to the rising popularity of the system, there’s a website, thedwyerscore.com, which has collated information and scores for every UFC event so far. Dwyer and his brother (who it seems has to do the bulk of the data entry donkey work) have even tracked average scores for each type of event. This one comes in just under the average score of 21.77 for a PPV, and one point above the previous UFC 226, in which Daniel Cormier defeated Stipe Miocic for the Heavyweight Title. In general, it seems that there has been a steady rise in momentum for fighters competing in PPV events. Where an event is held also seems to make a difference, as matchmakers like to have a large number of local fighters on these cards. Whenever the UFC travels to South America, it seems they find fighters with better scores. Fights held in Asia, on the other hand, have been steadily declining.
Not surprisingly, it is events featuring Conor McGregor that hold the first and third spots in the list of top ten all-time highest Dwyer Scores. As McGregor rose through the ranks without being beaten, he faced other unbeaten fighters, and thus their combined Dwyer Score is higher. By the time he met José Aldo at the end of 2015 for UFC 194, both men were carrying scores of +7 (and both would have had higher scores but the Dwyer system only counts UFC fights), making 14, a better total for a single fight than the average for events across the entire UFC. The total for the whole card came to 64, an absolute monster of a figure that has yet to be beaten. Such instances are few and far between. If/when McGregor returns to the UFC, he’ll be bringing with him a paltry +1, compared to his presumed opponent, Khabib Nurmagomedov who has a much more impressive +10. If an opponent can be found for Georges St. Pierre (+13), and Max Holloway (+12) is healthy and back in action, perhaps the record could be broken.
The real question is what all this means. Quite honestly, the answer is: nothing. It doesn’t really signify anything at all. It cannot predict whether an event will be particularly exciting or not. For example, Holly Holm’s earth-shattering demolition of Rhonda Rousey at UFC 193 back in November 2015 had a Dwyer Score of 13. UFC 189, McGregor vs Mendes, scored just 11. Compare this with what is generally acknowledged as the worst card in UFC history, UFC 149, which has a seemingly decent score of 15. On that night, all but one fight went to a decision, and that was a no-contest. There are almost no instances of an event with a very high score ending up being a disappointment. What does this mean? I’ll let you know when I figure it out.
With Johnson, UFC 227 has a score of 20. Without him, it gets just 7. Does it mean that the Dillashaw/Garbrandt rematch will be boring? Almost certainly not, given the amount of bad blood that has flowed between the two. Nor does it suggest that the co-main event will be one of the greatest fights in history (although if Johnson can pull off another seemingly impossible mid-air transition from takedown to armbar, I may have to eat my words). But if you’re considering whether a PPV is worth paying for, then it might just indicate whether it will be worth it or not. Otherwise, it’s mostly the same as other sporting statistics – something to consider, something to argue about and something to just have a bit of fun with.
Have you used a fighter’s Dwyer Score to help figure out your betting strategy? Or do you have your own unique system to share with the world? Let us know in the comments!
