Rugby

2018 Rugby Championship Predictions, Betting Tips and Tournament Preview

The Rugby Championship gets underway this weekend, the last before the 2019 Rugby World Cup. Over the next eight weeks, the four teams – Australia, Argentina, New Zealand and South Africa – will all play each other twice, once at home and once away.

Have South Africa done enough to change their fortunes this year, or will they be challenging Argentina for the bottom spot? Do Australia have a squad capable of challenging the All Blacks, or will the Kiwis dominate proceedings once again?

Our preview breaks down the teams, their chances and what to look out for during what will no doubt be another scintillating two months of rugby.

Argentina

 

Argentina is to the Rugby Championship what Italy is to the Six Nations. Plucky underdogs, capable of moments of inspired, flowing rugby and always a challenging opponent. Sadly, they rarely win, and with the exception of the truncated 2015 season, have always found themselves in last place in the Rugby Championship. They have also lost their coach, Daniel Hourcade, after a disastrous set of results over the summer. His replacement, Mario Ledesma, has a huge task on his hands as there is a good deal of confidence that needs rebuilding after a run of bad luck that has seen them win just six out of their last 28 matches.

This is not to say that Argentina are doomed. They may have failed to win a game during last year’s tournament, but this was their first winless showing since 2013. And don’t forget the 2015 RWC where they made it to fourth (in fact, it was only Rugby Championship teams that made it to the semis). It is not as if Ledesma is untested either, as the former national team hooker has coaching experience with Stade Francais and Montpellier. The final thing that Los Pumas have going for them is that they are both the national and Super Rugby teams, using the name Jaguares for the latter, and have already played a season of rugby together. Nevertheless, they have a huge mountain to climb, and with six uncapped players in the team, a single victory may be the best that they can hope for.

Coach: Mario Ledesma

World Ranking: 10th

Player to watch: Agustin Creevy. The 33-year old hooker is no spring chicken, but the Captain’s athleticism and experience are a rock of dependability in uncertain times for the team.

Squad: Matias Alemanno (Jaguares), Rodrigo Bruni, Marco Ciccioli, Agustin Creevy (c) (Jaguares), Lucas Favre, Diego Fortuny (Jaguares), Santiago Garcia Botta (Jaguares), Santiago Grondona, Marcos Kremer (Jaguares), Ignacio Larrague, Tomas Lavanini (Jaguares), Juan Manuel Leguizamon (Jaguares), Pablo Matera (Jaguares), Vivas Mayco, Santiago Medrano (Jaguares), Franco Molina, Julian Montoya (Jaguares), Javier Ortega Desio (Jaguares), Guido Petti (Jaguares), Nahuel Tetaz Chaparro (Jaguares), Juan Pablo Zeiss (Jaguares)

Gonzalo Bertranou (Jaguares), Emiliano Boffelli (Jaguares), Sebastian Cancelliere (Jaguares), Tomas Cubelli (Jaguares), Jeronimo de la Fuente (Jaguares), Bautista Delguy (Jaguares), Joaquin Diaz Bonilla (Jaguares), Bautista Ezcurra (Jaguares), Santiago Gonzalez Iglesias (Jaguares), Martin Landajo (Jaguares), Juan Cruz Mallia (Jaguares), Matias Moroni (Jaguares), Ramiro Moyano (Jaguares), Matias Orlando (Jaguares), Nicolas Sanchez (Jaguares)

NetBet Odds: 100/1

Fun Fact: ‘Los Pumas’ have their name due to an error by South African journalist Carl Kohler. During their tour of South Africa in 1965, he was attempting to identify whether the animal on the team crest was a puma or a jaguar. He picked wrong, but the name stuck.

Australia

 

While they may not have gotten the better of the mighty All Blacks during last year’s Rugby Championship, Australia are the only national team to have beaten them in 2017 (the other were the British & Irish Lions back in January). Their 23-18 victory in the Bledisloe Cup will prove a huge boost for a team that went into last year’s tournament having suffered a 24-19 defeat to Scotland. This was followed up by a drubbing by the Kiwis, who beat them 54-34. They rallied, and held off South Africa, drawing them 23-23 and then 27-27 in consecutive games.

There are still some big, dangerous players in the squad. Kurtley Beale has returned, and David Pocock will be back in the front row, a constant threat against Ireland during the breakdown. It’s at the centre that the problems begin, with Tevita Kuridrani and Samu Kerevi both sidelined through injury. As long as someone can get the ball into the hands of controversial full-back Israel Folau, there is always the possibility of a score.

Coach: Michael Cheika

World Ranking: 5th

Player to watch: David Pocock is back after taking 2017 as a sabbatical. His scavenging skills are sure to cause problems for any team, but the All Blacks are particularly wary around him and the Springboks have a poacher of their own in Malcolm Marx.

Squad: Allan Alaalatoa (Brumbies), Adam Coleman (Melbourne Rebels), Ned Hanigan (NSW Waratahs), Michael Hooper (c) (NSW Waratahs), Sekope Kepu (NSW Waratahs), Tolu Latu (NSW Waratahs), Brandon Paenga-Amosa (Queensland Reds), David Pocock (Brumbies), Tatafu Polota-Nau (Leicester Tigers), Tom Robertson (NSW Waratahs), Izack Rodda (Queensland Reds), Pete Samu (Brumbies), Rob Simmons (NSW Waratahs), Scott Sio (Brumbies), Lukhan Tui (Queensland Reds), Taniela Tupou (Queensland Reds)

Tom Banks (Brumbies), Kurtley Beale (NSW Waratahs), Israel Folau (NSW Waratahs), Bernard Foley (NSW Waratahs), Will Genia (Melbourne Rebels), Dane Haylett-Petty (Melbourne Rebels), Reece Hodge (Melbourne Rebels), Marika Koroibete (Melbourne Rebels), Jack Maddocks (Melbourne Rebels), Nick Phipps (NSW Waratahs), Joe Powell (Brumbies), Matt Toomua (Leicester Tigers/Melbourne Rebels)

NetBet Odds: 13/2

Fun Fact: The widest winning margin in a World Cup match is 142, achieved by Australia against Namibia in 2003 (final score: 142-0).

South Africa

 

Last year’s Rugby Championship started well for the Springboks with a single-point loss to New Zealand, but then went into neutral with two draws with Australia and then swiftly downhill after a 57-0 pasting by the All Blacks that they would rather we never talked about again. Their form coming into the Championship is similarly mixed, with a couple of victories over England and one loss.

Controversy behind the scenes has caused ructions for South Africa. Former coach Allister Coetzee was replaced by the wonderfully-named Rassie Erasmus, but some were unhappy with both the appointment and the manner in which it was made. Erasmus has had to prove himself, and so far, his team selection has held up. South Africa are slight underdogs to the Wallabies and All Blacks, but their grit and tenacity may end up causing a few upsets.

Coach: Rassie Erasmus

World Ranking: 6th

Player To Watch: Malcolm Marx is currently considered to be the best hooker in the world. His recent Super Rugby season featured 19 turnovers, 14 penalties and five outright thefts of the ball. Marx vs Pocock should make for some very entertaining, fluid rugby.

Squad: Cyle Brink (Emirates Lions), Jean-Luc du Preez (Cell C Sharks), Thomas du Toit (Cell C Sharks), Pieter-Steph du Toit (DHL Stormers), Eben Etzebeth (DHL Stormers), Steven Kitshoff (DHL Stormers), Siya Kolisi (c) – (DHL Stormers), Francois Louw (Bath), Wilco Louw (DHL Stormers), Frans Malherbe (DHL Stormers), Malcolm Marx (Emirates Lions), Bongi Mbonambi (DHL Stormers), Franco Mostert (Emirates Lions), Tendai Mtawarira (Cell C Sharks), Sikhumbuzo Notshe (DHL Stormers), Marvin Orie (Emirates Lions), RG Snyman (Vodacom Bulls), Akker van der Merwe (Cell C Sharks), Marco van Staden (Vodacom Bulls), Warren Whiteley (Emirates Lions)

Lukhanyo Am (Cell C Sharks), Ross Cronjé (Emirates Lions), Faf de Klerk (Sale Sharks, England), Aphiwe Dyantyi (Emirates Lions), André Esterhuizen (Cell C Sharks), Elton Janjies (Emirates Lions), Jesse Kriel (Vodacom Bulls), Willie le Roux (Wasps), Makazole Mapimpi (Cell C Sharks), Lionel Mapoe (Emirates Lions), Lwazi Mvovo (Cell C Sharks), Embrose Papier (Vodacom Bulls), Handré Pollard (Vodacom Bulls), Ivan van Zyl (Vodacom Bulls), Damian Willemse (DHL Stormers)

NetBet Odds: 9/1

Fun Fact: No one has ever scored a hat-trick against the Springboks in over 100 years of test rugby.

New Zealand

New Zealand are on another level, and look as untouchable as ever. Last year’s competition was deemed a bit lacklustre, despite the fact that they won all six of their matches, because the year before all of their victories came with bonus points as well. They will be looking to match that 2016 performance again this year but refuse to be complacent in the face of such international quality. Four young players (Jack Goodhue, Richie Mo’unga, Shannon Frizell and Jackson Hemopo) made impressive debuts in the last test against France, and will be looking for opportunities to shine during the Championship.

About the only cloud hanging over the team are recent comments from former players that the Haka is becoming overused. Almost everyone else disagrees, not only in New Zealand, but around the world. A few players from other teams complain that it gives the Kiwis an unfair psychological and physical advantage, but it elevates the drama significantly and can lead to some epic confrontations.

Coach: Steve Hansen

World Ranking: 1st

Player To Watch: There is something of a battle for the No. 10 jersey developing. The current owner is Beauden Barrett, NZ’s World Player of the Year for 2016/17, and he will be starting against Australia on Saturday. But hot on his heels (and with plenty of public support) comes Richie Mo’unga, who had an outstanding season with the Crusaders this year.

Squad: Dane Coles (Hurricanes), Nathan Harris (Chiefs), Codie Taylor (Crusaders), Owen Franks (Crusaders), Joe Moody (Crusaders), Tim Perry (Crusaders), Karl Tu’inukuafe (Chiefs), Ofa Tuungafasi (Blues), Scott Barrett (Crusaders), Brodie Retallick (Chiefs), Samuel Whitelock (Crusaders), Sam Cane (Chiefs), Shannon Frizell (Highlanders), Jackson Hemopo (Highlanders), Kieran Read (c) (Crusaders), Ardie Savea (Hurricanes), Liam Squire (Highlanders), Luke Whitelock (Highlanders)

TJ Perenara (Hurricanes), Aaron Smith (Highlanders), Te Toiroa Tahuriorangi (Chiefs), Beauden Barrett (Hurricanes), Damian McKenzie (Chiefs), Richie Mo’unga (Crusaders), Ryan Crotty (Crusaders), Jack Goodhue (Crusaders), Anton Lienert-Brown (Chiefs), Sonny Bill Williams (Blues), Jordie Barrett (Hurricanes), Rieko Ioane (Blues), Nehe Milner-Skudder (Hurricanes), Waisake Naholo (Highlanders), Ben Smith (Highlanders)

NetBet Odds: 4/27

Fun Fact: 46 sets of brothers have played for the All Blacks, as well as 19 sets of fathers and sons.