The NFL action in Week 3 was gripping to say the least as the Miami Dolphins racked up 70 points against the Denver Broncos, the Dallas Cowboys’ unbeaten run finally came to an end and the Cleveland Browns defence put up another impressive showing.
But all that is already in the rear-view mirror as we look forward to what Week 4 in the NFL might hold.
We’ve previewed three of the weekend’s top games, including the matchup taking place in London between the Falcons and the Jaguars, giving our picks and predictions based on the latest NFL odds for each ahead of what is sure to be another thrilling round of fixtures.
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NFL Week 4 Schedule
Thursday
Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers
Sunday
Atlanta Falcons at Jacksonville Jaguars
Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns
Pittsburgh Steelers at Houston Texans
Minnesota Vikings at Carolina Panthers
Cincinnati Bengals at Tennessee Titans
Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints
Los Angeles Rams at Indianapolis Colts
Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills
Denver Broncos at Chicago Bears
Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers
Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers
New England Patriots at Dallas Cowboys
Kansas City Chiefs at New York Jets
Monday
Seattle Seahawks at New York Giants
Atlanta Falcons vs Jacksonville Jaguars
All eyes will be on Wembley on Sunday as the NFL makes another visit to the UK with the Atlanta Falcons facing the Jacksonville Jaguars.
The Jaguars’ unexpected defeat to the Texans last week was certainly something of a surprise, but a closer examination of the box score reveals that the outcome doesn’t truly reflect the true story of the game.
Despite Jacksonville trailing by 20 points, they surpassed the Texans in terms of yardage and registered 22 first downs compared to Houston’s 15. Their performance was held back by an unconverted fourth down and a third-down conversion rate below 50%.
In contrast, the Falcons struggled against the Lions, managing only 183 yards of total offense against Detroit’s underwhelming defence.
Even with the Lions racking up 119 penalty yards, they still defeated the Falcons by two possessions – so betting on the Falcons this week might not be a popular choice.
Pick: Jaguars -3
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs New Orleans Saints
The Saints appear quite average despite the hype. The Packers seemed favourable in their Week 3 matchup until New Orleans lost their late-game advantage.
For Monday Night Football, the Buccaneers are a trendy choice as home underdogs against the Eagles. Should Tampa Bay maintain their lead or secure a victory, it’s unlikely the odds will favour a 3-0 team.
While the Saints are set to welcome back Alvin Kamara, there’s scepticism surrounding this New Orleans team led by Dennis Allen and Derek Carr as favourites. Allen, as the Saints’ head coach, holds a 1-6 record against the spread (ATS) in divisional contests.
His track record is also 4-10 ATS when favoured and 2-7 ATS as a favourite of fewer than four points.
The game’s total stands at 40.5. Given that this game features two defensively minded coaches, winning by more than a field goal seems ambitious.
Pick: Saints +3
Cleveland Browns vs Baltimore Ravens
The top three defensive performances in the NFL this season, based on defensive success rate, belong to the Cleveland Browns in Weeks 1, 2, and 3.
But that’s not all, they also boast a pass rush that can overpower the Ravens’ offensive line, thereby consistently pressuring QB Lamar Jackson.
In Week 3, the Ravens managed 186 rushing yards against the Colts. However, facing Cleveland’s sixth-ranked rush defence, as per Defence Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) from the initial two games, will be a stiffer challenge.
Notably, after limiting Derrick Henry to just 20 rushing yards on 11 attempts, Cleveland’s DVOA rating is expected to rise.
While Deshaun Watson showcased an impressive performance in Week 3 with the Browns, the team’s passing offense remains questionable. The Titans’ defence, known for being more susceptible to passing, ranks 23rd in DVOA against the pass.
In comparison, the Ravens pose a tougher challenge with their seventh-ranked pass defence, as per DVOA, so on this evidence, it might be wise to anticipate a classic AFC North battle, where reaching 20 points could seal the game.
Pick: Under 42.5.
NFL Week 4 Betting Picks
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs New Orleans Saints – Saints +3 @ 1.34
Atlanta Falcons vs Jacksonville Jaguars – Jaguars -3 @ 1.41
Cleveland Browns vs Baltimore Ravens Under 42.5 points @ 1.75
*Odds subject to change.
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