World Cup 2026 is over with Spain deservedly crowned champions after beating Argentina, and now the footballing focus moves toward one of the tightest Ballon d’Or races in recent history.
If the past is anything to go by, the World Cup tournament plays a huge role in the destination of the individual accolade.
Lionel Messi collected the award in 2023 after guiding Argentina to World Cup glory in Qatar, while Luka Modric triumphed in 2018 following his mesmeric displays in Russia, which also saw him claim the 2018 tournament’s Golden Ball prize.
So, what is the current situation ahead of the official Ballon d’Or 2026 ceremony on October 26?
Below, we take a look at the latest Ballon d’Or odds available on NetBet Sport, and to say things are tight at the top would be something of an understatement…
*All odds are subject to change
Harry Kane – 2.50
England captain Kane is the current Ballon d’Or favourite, a slight surprise given he could only steer his nation to a third-place finish at the World Cup. Kane scored six goals in North America, though it is perhaps his performances with Bayern Munich in 2025-26 which have led to such a short price here. The 32-year-old netted a ridiculous 61 times in just 51 appearances across all competitions last season, helping the Bavarians win a Bundesliga and DFB-Pokal double. A Ballon d’Or winner without a World Cup or Champions League winner medal? If anyone deserves to achieve that feat this year, it is Kane.
Lamine Yamal – 3.00
Yamal’s odds have tumbled since Spain’s World Cup success in New Jersey, which is not surprising. But the fact of the matter is the Barcelona teenager’s individual campaign was average at best. Yamal scored one goal and failed to record an assist in eight appearances, which is well below his incredibly high standards. A pre-tournament hamstring injury did not help matters, and it must also be said that Yamal’s numbers at Barcelona in 2025-26 (24 goals and 18 assists in 45 appearances) are extraordinarily good. When in full flow, the teenager is probably the best player on the planet, and no one would really begrudge him getting his hands on a Ballon d’Or before his 20th birthday.
Rodri – 4.50
Rodri won the Ballon d’Or back in 2024 after guiding Spain to glory at Euro 2024. The midfield metronome played a vital role in La Roja’s World Cup success, and was deservedly handed the Golden Ball award after full-time. An injury-interrupted few years at Manchester City almost made people forget just how good Rodri is, but this summer was a timely reminder of his quality – which is right up there with other Spanish all-time greats such as Sergio Busquets, Xavi Hernandez and Xabi Alonso. If recency bias rears its head in the Ballon d’Or voting, Rodri should be the main benefactor!
Kylian Mbappe – 6.00
After a goal-filled campaign with Real Madrid (42 in 44 appearances), albeit without collecting a major trophy, Mbappe lit up the World Cup stage once again. France’s captain scored 10 times on his way to collecting a second consecutive Golden Boot, and he is also now the tournament’s all-time leading goal-getter with 22 strikes overall. The numbers are seriously impressive, but the total absence of silverware over the past 12 months means it is highly unlikely that Mbappe collects the Ballon d’Or this year. But at 27, age is still on the Frenchman’s side.
Lionel Messi – 11.00
If Argentina had won back-to-back World Cups, a ninth Ballon d’Or for Messi felt inevitable. But after La Albiceleste’s failure vs Spain in New Jersey, it is hard to see how the 39-year-old can get his hands on the prize – and the odds here reflect that. Messi scored eight goals and tallied four assists at World Cup 2026, but failed to deliver anything of note in the final defeat to Spain. Furthermore, Messi now plays outside of Europe with Inter Miami, which only further harms his chances here – even with 12 goals and seven assists from 14 MLS outings to his name so far this year.
Who else is a contender for the 2026 Ballon d’Or?
Ousmane Dembele – 17.00
Fabian Ruiz – 17.00
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia – 21.00
Pau Cubarsi – 23.00
Michael Olise – 26.00
Jude Bellingham – 26.00
Erling Haaland – 51.00
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